Kacper Cholewa vs Kristians Boguzs
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kristians Boguzs54%
Kacper Cholewa 46%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Kristians Boguzs a 54% favorite over Kacper Cholewa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Kristians Boguzs holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1624 to 1536, a 88-point edge.
Kristians Boguzs enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Kacper Cholewa finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kristians Boguzs 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record5-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"HeightTBD
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Kristians Boguzs is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +18 while a loss costs more — Kacper Cholewa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+30→ 1566
If they lose-18→ 1518
If they win+18→ 1642
If they lose-30→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1522 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kacper CholewaKristians Boguzs