Kristians Boguzs vs Kacper Cholewa

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePodpromie Hall

BroadcastKSW TV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on KSW TV.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 4:00 AM
Your time

Kristians Boguzs4-0-0Kristians Boguzs vs Kacper CholewaKacper Cholewa3-1-0

Kristians Boguzs4-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

4-0-0Record3-1-0

22Age24

TBDHeight5'8"

TBDReachTBD

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Kacper Cholewa3-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kristians Boguzs owns a 37-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Kristians Boguzs and Kacper Cholewa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Kristians BoguzsKacper Cholewa

Recent form

Kristians BoguzsW W W W · +99 Elo last 4

WWWW

Kacper CholewaW W L W · +61 Elo last 4

WWLW

Elo edge

Kristians Boguzs1598+23 last move

Kacper Cholewa1561+26 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

50%Kristians Boguzs50%Kacper Cholewa

Model favoriteKristians Boguzs

Elo baseline55% for Kristians Boguzs

Matchup adjustment-5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Kristians BoguzsStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Kacper Cholewa is 50%, after Elo alone favored Kristians Boguzs at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1598 · 1561Kristians Boguzs leads by 37 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1500Equal pre-fight opponent Elo across 4 and 4 sampled fights.

Elo record depth4 · 4 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Kristians BoguzsvsKacper Cholewa

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Kristians BoguzsKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Kacper CholewaKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Kristians BoguzsKacper Cholewa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

2Wins by knockout3

1Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Kristians Boguzs vs Kacper Cholewa is a scheduled Lightweight fight on KSW 122 RZESZOW : YAKYMENKO VS MORELLI. Kristians Boguzs enters with a 4-0-0 record and Kacper Cholewa enters with a 3-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.