Kai Kamaka III vs Luke Riley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-1Record14-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool
What's at stake
Luke Riley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kai Kamaka III carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-8→ 1636
If they win+11→ 1765
If they lose-21→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kai Kamaka IIILuke Riley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Riley72%
Kai Kamaka III 28%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 72% favorite over Kai Kamaka III in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Luke Riley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1644, a 110-point edge.
Kai Kamaka III enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Kai Kamaka III finishes 22% of wins inside the distance, Luke Riley 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.