Karl Willis vs Samuel Bily
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-5-0Record0-2-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight174 lbs
Freelance· 1552 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Samuel Bily is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Karl Willis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+28→ 1420
If they lose-20→ 1372
If they win+20→ 1467
If they lose-28→ 1419
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1486 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Karl WillisSamuel Bily
Combat Edge model read
Samuel Bily65%
Karl Willis 35%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Samuel Bily a 65% favorite over Karl Willis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Samuel Bily holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1447 to 1392, a 55-point edge.
Karl Willis enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Samuel Bily enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.