Brendan Allen28-7-0
Christian Leroy Duncan15-3-0
Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel miss · Brendan Allen won
48%Brendan Allen53%Christian Leroy Duncan
Combat Edge Model · Full card
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan (October 10, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
12Total bouts
12Frozen forecasts
5Close matchups
6Model / Elo splits
2Strong model leans
LockedFight card started
Card intelligence
Find the fights that matter
Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.
Showing all 12 matchups.
Main card
Main card predictions
5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Matheus Camilo11-4-0
Jai Herbert15-6-1
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Jai Herbert won
59%Matheus Camilo41%Jai Herbert
Lupita Godinez15-6-0
Ketlen Souza17-7-0
Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Lupita Godinez won
55%Lupita Godinez45%Ketlen Souza
Andre Fili26-14-0
Kai Kamaka III18-9-1
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Andre Fili won
40%Andre Fili60%Kai Kamaka III
Malcolm Wellmaker10-3-0
Otari Tanzilovi11-2-0
Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Otari Tanzilovi won
52%Malcolm Wellmaker48%Otari Tanzilovi
Prelims
Prelims predictions
7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Julius Walker8-3-0
Gerald Meerschaert37-23-0
Strong model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Julius Walker won
74%Julius Walker27%Gerald Meerschaert
Francisco Prado13-5-0
Ismael Bonfim20-8-0
Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Francisco Prado won
53%Francisco Prado47%Ismael Bonfim
Niko Price17-11-0
Leon Shahbazyan12-6-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Niko Price won
56%Niko Price44%Leon Shahbazyan
Felipe Franco11-3-0
Brendson Ribeiro18-11-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Brendson Ribeiro won
75%Felipe Franco26%Brendson Ribeiro
Allen Frye7-1-0
RJ Harris6-1-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Allen Frye won
37%Allen Frye63%RJ Harris
Alice Pereira8-1-0
Darya Zheleznyakova10-4-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Alice Pereira won
58%Alice Pereira42%Darya Zheleznyakova
Ernesta Kareckaite6-2-2
Melissa Gatto9-3-3
Close matchupModel / Elo split
46%Ernesta Kareckaite54%Melissa Gatto