Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record18-13-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'3"
64"ReachTBD
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Michelle Waterson-Gomez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1641
If they lose-14→ 1617
If they win+14→ 1596
If they lose-10→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Karolina KowalkiewiczMichelle Waterson-Gomez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karolina Kowalkiewicz62%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 38%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Karolina Kowalkiewicz a 62% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Karolina Kowalkiewicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1582, a 49-point edge.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Michelle Waterson-Gomez 67%.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Michelle Waterson-Gomez share 1 common opponent: Felice Herrig.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.