Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Rose Namajunas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record14-8-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'3"Height5'5"
64"Reach65"
116 lbsWeight125 lbs
American Top TeamTeam303 Training Center
What's at stake
Rose Namajunas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1645
If they lose-10→ 1621
If they win+13→ 1708
If they lose-19→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1627 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Karolina KowalkiewiczRose Namajunas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rose Namajunas79%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 21%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Rose Namajunas a 79% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Rose Namajunas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1631, a 64-point edge.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz finishes 25% of wins inside the distance, Rose Namajunas 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.