Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ollie Schmid56%
Keiichiro Nakamura 44%Elo baseline: 39%
The Combat Edge model makes Ollie Schmid a 56% favorite over Keiichiro Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keiichiro Nakamura's way (39%).
Keiichiro Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1643 to 1568, a 75-point edge.
Keiichiro Nakamura finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Ollie Schmid 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record5-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
70"Reach71"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
EXFIGHTTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
Keiichiro Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ollie Schmid carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1656
If they lose-19→ 1624
If they win+29→ 1597
If they lose-19→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Keiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid