Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Keiichiro Nakamura8-1-0Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie SchmidOllie SchmidOllie / The Hungarian Stallion |4-3-0

Keiichiro Nakamura8-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-1-0Record4-3-0

27AgeTBD

5'10"Height5'11"

70"Reach71"

146 lbsWeight145 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Ollie SchmidOllie / The Hungarian Stallion4-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Keiichiro Nakamura owns a 142-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Keiichiro Nakamura and Ollie Schmid across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Keiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid

Recent form

Keiichiro NakamuraW W W W W · +121 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Ollie SchmidL W W W L · +32 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Elo edge

Keiichiro Nakamura1677+32 last move

Ollie Schmid1535-18 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

91%Keiichiro Nakamura9%Ollie Schmid

Model favoriteKeiichiro Nakamura

Elo baseline69% for Keiichiro Nakamura

Matchup adjustment+22 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Keiichiro NakamuraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Keiichiro Nakamura leads the full model at 91%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 21 points.

Current Elo ratings1677 · 1535Keiichiro Nakamura leads by 142 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1529 · 1523Keiichiro Nakamura faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 7 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 7 fightsKeiichiro Nakamura has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Keiichiro NakamuravsOllie Schmid

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Keiichiro NakamuraKO/TKO leads 88% of wins

Ollie SchmidKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Keiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.22Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

43Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

3.39Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.86

66Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

0Takedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 30%

83Takedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 56%

0Submission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

7Wins by knockout3

0Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout2

1Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision0

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADY. Keiichiro Nakamura enters with a 8-1-0 record and Ollie Schmid enters with a 4-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.