Combat Edge Intelligence

Kelvin Gastelum vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record36-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'0"
71"Reach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

Kelvin Gastelum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+11→ 1704
If they lose-13→ 1680
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+13→ 1664
If they lose-11→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
42%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.01
Takedown avg.
1.87
34%
Takedown accuracy
51%
60%
Takedown defense
71%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Kelvin GastelumNate Marquardt
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
5 (25%)
Submission
15 (42%)
9 (45%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum84%
Nate Marquardt 16%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 84% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Kelvin Gastelum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1651, a 42-point edge.

Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.