Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record26-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'0"
71"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamPMA Super Martial Arts
What's at stake
Robert Whittaker is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
If they win+10→ 1749
If they lose-14→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1755 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumRobert Whittaker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robert Whittaker51%
Kelvin Gastelum 49%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Robert Whittaker a 51% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Robert Whittaker holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1739 to 1693, a 46-point edge.
Robert Whittaker enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Robert Whittaker 58%.
Kelvin Gastelum and Robert Whittaker share 1 common opponent: Jared Cannonier.
Robert Whittaker carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.