Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record24-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71"Reach75″
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Vicente Luque is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1706
If they lose-11→ 1682
If they win+11→ 1719
If they lose-13→ 1695
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque56%
Kelvin Gastelum 44%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 56% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Vicente Luque holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1693, a 15-point edge.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Vicente Luque carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.