Kelvin Gastelum vs Vicente Luque
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record24-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71"Reach75″
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1712 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumVicente Luque
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vicente Luque60%
Kelvin Gastelum 40%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Vicente Luque a 60% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1707), separated by just 14 points.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Luque 88%.
Vicente Luque carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.