Kelvin Gastelum vs Yousri Belgaroui
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record10-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'5"
71"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight190 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness· 1664 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Kelvin Gastelum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Yousri Belgaroui carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1703
If they lose-14→ 1679
If they win+18→ 1666
If they lose-14→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumYousri Belgaroui
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kelvin Gastelum60%
Yousri Belgaroui 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 60% favorite over Yousri Belgaroui in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Kelvin Gastelum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1648, a 45-point edge.
Yousri Belgaroui enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Yousri Belgaroui 80%.
Yousri Belgaroui carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.