Louis Smolka vs Tim Elliott
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record21-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
68"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team OyamaTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+12→ 1656
If they lose-12→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaTim Elliott
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Elliott63%
Louis Smolka 37%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Elliott a 63% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1644), separated by just 14 points.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.
Louis Smolka and Tim Elliott share 1 common opponent: Sumudaerji.
Louis Smolka carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.