Louis Smolka vs Tim Elliott
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record21-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
68"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
Tim Elliott is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Louis Smolka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1643
If they lose-11→ 1619
If they win+11→ 1656
If they lose-13→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaTim Elliott
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Elliott66%
Louis Smolka 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Elliott a 66% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Tim Elliott holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1630, a 15-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.
Louis Smolka and Tim Elliott share 1 common opponent: Sumudaerji.
Louis Smolka carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.