Lucas Almeida vs Mark Choinski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record8-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
74.5"ReachN/A
150 lbsWeight155 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1643 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamRoufusport· 1685 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
If they win+24→ 1663
If they lose-24→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlmeidaMark Choinski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Almeida59%
Mark Choinski 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Almeida a 59% favorite over Mark Choinski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1639), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Almeida finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mark Choinski 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.