Lucas Fernando vs Philipe Lins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record18-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
81.5"Reach78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Refit Pro FightersTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1665 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoPhilipe Lins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando76%
Philipe Lins 24%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 76% favorite over Philipe Lins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1683), separated by just 4 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Philipe Lins 72%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.