Lucas Fernando vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record14-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81.5"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
Lucas Fernando is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Rafael Tobias carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1702
If they lose-17→ 1670
If they win+17→ 1673
If they lose-15→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando73%
Rafael Tobias 27%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 73% favorite over Rafael Tobias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Lucas Fernando holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1656, a 31-point edge.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.