Luke Riley vs Mairon Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-0-0Record17-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
69"Reach 72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamParana Vale Tudo· 1663 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
If they win+16→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Luke RileyMairon Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mairon Santos56%
Luke Riley 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Mairon Santos a 56% favorite over Luke Riley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1754 vs 1758), separated by just 4 points.
Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Mairon Santos enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Luke Riley finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Mairon Santos 53%.
Mairon Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.