Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Riley vs Yair Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-0-0Record20-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeamValle Flow Striking

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luke RileyNow 1754
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Yair RodriguezNow 1751
If they win+16→ 1767
If they lose-16→ 1735

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.56
Sig. strikes / min
4.65
57%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.99
65%
Strike defense
52%
0
Takedown avg.
0.69
TBD
Takedown accuracy
27%
38%
Takedown defense
58%
0
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Luke RileyYair Rodriguez
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
8 (40%)
0 (0%)
Submission
5 (25%)
4 (29%)
Decision
7 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Riley92%
Yair Rodriguez 8%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 92% favorite over Yair Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1754 vs 1751), separated by just 3 points.

Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Luke Riley finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Yair Rodriguez 65%.

Yair Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.