Manuel Exposito vs Michael Aswell Jr.
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Michael Aswell Jr.53%
Manuel Exposito 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Aswell Jr. a 53% favorite over Manuel Exposito in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Manuel Exposito's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1645 vs 1645), separated by just 0 points.
Manuel Exposito finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Michael Aswell Jr. 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
150 lbsWeight145 lbs
Entram Gym· 1670 avg Elo · 14 ratedTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1609 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Manuel ExpositoMichael Aswell Jr.