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Combat Edge Intelligence

Manuel Exposito vs Michael Aswell Jr.

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record12-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
150 lbsWeight145 lbs
Entram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 ratedTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1608 avg Elo · 9 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Manuel ExpositoNow 1645
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
Michael Aswell Jr.Now 1644
If they win+16→ 1660
If they lose-16→ 1628

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
7.60
Not available
Strike accuracy
43%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.03
Not available
Strike defense
52%
Not available
Takedown avg.
0.24
Not available
Takedown accuracy
0%
Not available
Takedown defense
56%
Not available
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Manuel ExpositoMichael Aswell Jr.
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
6 (50%)
7 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (21%)
Decision
6 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Aswell Jr.65%
Manuel Exposito 35%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Aswell Jr. a 65% favorite over Manuel Exposito in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Manuel Exposito's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1645 vs 1644), separated by just 1 points.

Manuel Exposito finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Michael Aswell Jr. 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.