Marcello Morelli vs Vitaliy Yakimenko
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Vitaliy Yakimenko76%
Marcello Morelli 24%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Vitaliy Yakimenko a 76% favorite over Marcello Morelli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Vitaliy Yakimenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1553, a 144-point edge.
Marcello Morelli enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Vitaliy Yakimenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Marcello Morelli finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Vitaliy Yakimenko 75%.
Marcello Morelli and Vitaliy Yakimenko share 1 common opponent: Sebastian Przybysz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
8-5-0Record12-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
-Reach66.5"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Uniq Fight Club· 1580 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamHunters MMA
What's at stake
Vitaliy Yakimenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marcello Morelli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1575
If they lose-10→ 1543
If they win+10→ 1707
If they lose-22→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcello MorelliVitaliy Yakimenko
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
LossSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · 2025
WinDecision (Split) · 2026