Marian Ziółkowski vs Wilson Varela
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Marian Ziółkowski61%
Wilson Varela 39%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Marian Ziółkowski a 61% favorite over Wilson Varela in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Marian Ziółkowski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1605, a 25-point edge.
Marian Ziółkowski finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 85%.
Marian Ziółkowski and Wilson Varela share 2 common opponents: Salahdine Parnasse and Sebastian Rajewski.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
26-12-1Record14-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'0"
-Reach75.6"
156 lbsWeight154 lbs
Nemesis Pro TeamTeamMarseille Fight Club· 1625 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Marian Ziółkowski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Wilson Varela carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1641
If they lose-13→ 1617
If they win+17→ 1622
If they lose-15→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1606 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marian ZiółkowskiWilson Varela
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (2)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2022
WinKO (Body Kick) · 2023