Marian Ziółkowski vs Wilson Varela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-11-1Record13-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
156 lbsWeight154 lbs
What's at stake
Marian Ziółkowski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Wilson Varela carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1655
If they lose-14→ 1631
If they win+19→ 1595
If they lose-13→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marian ZiółkowskiWilson Varela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marian Ziółkowski58%
Wilson Varela 42%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Marian Ziółkowski a 58% favorite over Wilson Varela in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Marian Ziółkowski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1576, a 69-point edge.
Wilson Varela enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marian Ziółkowski finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 83%.
Marian Ziółkowski and Wilson Varela share 3 common opponents: Salahdine Parnasse, Sebastian Rajewski and Gracjan Szadziński.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2022
WinKO (Body Kick) · 2023
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2019
WinTKO (Knee and Punches) · 2023