Marian Ziółkowski vs Wilson Varela

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePodpromie Hall

BroadcastKSW TV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on KSW TV.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 4:00 AM
Your time

Marian ZiółkowskiGolden Boy |26-11-1Marian Ziółkowski vs Wilson VarelaWilson VarelaThe Prototype |13-8-0

Marian ZiółkowskiGolden Boy26-11-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

26-11-1Record13-8-0

36Age31

6'1"Height6'0"

TBDReachTBD

156 lbsWeight154 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Wilson VarelaThe Prototype13-8-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Marian Ziółkowski owns a 69-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Marian Ziółkowski and Wilson Varela across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Marian ZiółkowskiWilson Varela

Recent form

Marian ZiółkowskiW L L L W · -26 Elo last 5

WLLLW

Wilson VarelaL L W L W · -5 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Elo edge

Marian Ziółkowski1645+7 last move

Wilson Varela1576-18 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

43%Marian Ziółkowski57%Wilson Varela

Model favoriteWilson Varela

Elo baseline40% for Wilson Varela

Matchup adjustment+17 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Wilson VarelaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Wilson Varela is 57%, after Elo alone favored Marian Ziółkowski at 60%.

Current Elo ratings1645 · 1576Marian Ziółkowski leads by 69 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1596 · 1561Marian Ziółkowski faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth33 · 20 fightsMarian Ziółkowski has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Marian ZiółkowskivsWilson Varela

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Marian Ziółkowskisubmission leads 50% of wins

Wilson VarelaKO/TKO leads 38% of wins

Common opponents

Salahdine ParnasseMarian Ziółkowski: loss · TKO (Punches) · May 10, 2025Wilson Varela: loss · TKO (Punches) · Dec 20, 2024

Sebastian RajewskiMarian Ziółkowski: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jun 18, 2022Wilson Varela: win · KO (Body Kick) · Dec 16, 2023

Gracjan SzadzińskiMarian Ziółkowski: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 27, 2019Wilson Varela: win · TKO (Knee and Punches) · May 13, 2023

Tale of the tape

Marian ZiółkowskiWilson Varela

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

7Wins by knockout5

13Wins by submission5

6Wins by decision2

4Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission1

5Losses by decision5

Marian Ziółkowski vs Wilson Varela is a scheduled Lightweight fight on KSW 122 RZESZOW : YAKYMENKO VS MORELLI. Marian Ziółkowski enters with a 26-11-1 record and Wilson Varela enters with a 13-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.