Combat Edge Intelligence

Mark Choinski vs MarQuel Mederos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record11-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
N/AReach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
RoufusportTeamFactory X

What's at stake

MarQuel Mederos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mark Choinski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mark ChoinskiNow 1640
If they win+27→ 1667
If they lose-21→ 1619
MarQuel MederosNow 1687
If they win+14→ 1701
If they lose-18→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
4.84
TBD
Strike accuracy
57%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
84%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mark ChoinskiMarQuel Mederos
15501600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
5 (63%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (25%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

MarQuel Mederos67%
Mark Choinski 33%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes MarQuel Mederos a 67% favorite over Mark Choinski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

MarQuel Mederos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1640, a 47-point edge.

Mark Choinski finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.