Matt Brown vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-19-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Immortal Fight TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1625
If they lose-6→ 1601
If they win+6→ 1794
If they lose-18→ 1770
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1645 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt BrownRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robbie Lawler84%
Matt Brown 16%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 84% favorite over Matt Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1607, a 181-point edge.
Matt Brown finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler share 1 common opponent: Bryan Barberena.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.