Michael Chandler vs Paddy Pimblett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record24-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
71"Reach 73"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamNext Generation UK
What's at stake
Paddy Pimblett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Michael Chandler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1746
If they lose-10→ 1722
If they win+10→ 1805
If they lose-14→ 1781
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1772 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChandlerPaddy Pimblett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paddy Pimblett92%
Michael Chandler 8%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 92% favorite over Michael Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Paddy Pimblett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1795 to 1732, a 63-point edge.
Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Michael Chandler finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 75%.
Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett share 2 common opponents: Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje.
Paddy Pimblett carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.