Michael Chandler vs Rafael Fiziev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
71"Reach71"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTiger Muay Thai
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1772 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Michael ChandlerRafael Fiziev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Fiziev72%
Michael Chandler 28%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Fiziev a 72% favorite over Michael Chandler in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Chandler's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1732 vs 1730), separated by just 2 points.
Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Michael Chandler finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Fiziev 71%.
Michael Chandler and Rafael Fiziev share 2 common opponents: Mauricio Ruffy and Justin Gaethje.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2021
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2025
LossDecision - Majority · 2023