Mingyang Zhang vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
75"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1668
If they lose-12→ 1644
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mingyang ZhangRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mingyang Zhang58%
Rafael Tobias 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mingyang Zhang a 58% favorite over Rafael Tobias in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Tobias's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1657), separated by just 1 points.
Mingyang Zhang enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mingyang Zhang finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.