Combat Edge Intelligence

Nasrudin Nasrudinov vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReach74"
189 lbsWeight205 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nasrudin NasrudinovNow 1656
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
Rafael TobiasNow 1656
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.03
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
88%
Strike accuracy
36%
0.29
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.81
75%
Strike defense
35%
2.20
Takedown avg.
2.40
50%
Takedown accuracy
22%
40%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Nasrudin NasrudinovRafael Tobias
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
1 (10%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (40%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Tobias70%
Nasrudin Nasrudinov 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 70% favorite over Nasrudin Nasrudinov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nasrudin Nasrudinov's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1656), separated by just 0 points.

Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nasrudin Nasrudinov finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.