Combat Edge Intelligence

Natan Schulte vs Rafa García

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-6-1Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top Team· avg 1721 EloTeamTeam Elevation

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Natan SchulteNow 1761
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749
Rafa GarcíaNow 1756
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.31
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.13
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
76%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

Natan SchulteRafa García
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (16%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
10 (40%)
Submission
8 (44%)
11 (44%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafa García60%
Natan Schulte 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 60% favorite over Natan Schulte in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Natan Schulte's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1761 vs 1756), separated by just 5 points.

Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Natan Schulte finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.