Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino Greco
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Niko Ceraglia73%
Valentino Greco 27%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Niko Ceraglia a 73% favorite over Valentino Greco in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Niko Ceraglia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1564 to 1447, a 117-point edge.
Valentino Greco enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Niko Ceraglia finishes 75% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record1-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 ratedTeamX Uno Boxing Genova
What's at stake
Niko Ceraglia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +16 while a loss costs more — Valentino Greco carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-32→ 1532
If they win+32→ 1479
If they lose-16→ 1431
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Niko CeragliaValentino Greco