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Combat Edge Intelligence

Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino Greco

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

3-1-0Record1-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1573 avg Elo · 10 ratedTeamCardano Top Team

What's at stake

Niko Ceraglia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Valentino Greco carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Niko CeragliaNow 1545
If they win+19→ 1564
If they lose-29→ 1516
Valentino GrecoNow 1465
If they win+29→ 1494
If they lose-19→ 1446

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1515 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1484 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
Not available
Strike accuracy
Not available
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
Not available
Strike defense
Not available
Not available
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
Not available
Takedown defense
Not available
Not available
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Niko CeragliaValentino Greco
145015001550202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (33%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (33%)
Submission
1 (100%)
1 (33%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Niko Ceraglia61%
Valentino Greco 39%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Niko Ceraglia a 61% favorite over Valentino Greco in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Niko Ceraglia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1545 to 1465, a 80-point edge.

Valentino Greco enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Niko Ceraglia finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.