CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE

Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino Greco

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePalapellicone

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Niko CeragliaVenom |3-1-0Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino GrecoValentino Greco1-2-0

Niko CeragliaVenom3-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

3-1-0Record1-2-0

TBDAgeTBD

6'0"Height6'0"

TBDReachTBD

145 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Valentino Greco1-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Niko Ceraglia owns a 80-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Niko Ceraglia and Valentino Greco across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Niko CeragliaValentino Greco

Recent form

Niko CeragliaL W W W · +46 Elo last 4

LWWW

Valentino GrecoL L W · -34 Elo last 3

LLW

Elo edge

Niko Ceraglia1545-30 last move

Valentino Greco1465-28 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

62%Niko Ceraglia38%Valentino Greco

Model favoriteNiko Ceraglia

Elo baseline61% for Niko Ceraglia

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Niko CeragliaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Niko Ceraglia leads the full model at 62%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1545 · 1465Niko Ceraglia leads by 80 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1515 · 1484Niko Ceraglia faced the stronger recent schedule (4 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth4 · 3 fightsNiko Ceraglia has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Niko CeragliavsValentino Greco

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Niko CeragliaKO/TKO leads 33% of wins

Valentino Grecosubmission leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Niko CeragliaValentino Greco

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

1Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission1

1Wins by decision0

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission2

0Losses by decision0

Niko Ceraglia vs Valentino Greco is a scheduled Lightweight fight on CAGE WARRIORS 211 ROME : BELLANDI VS VALENTE. Niko Ceraglia enters with a 3-1-0 record and Valentino Greco enters with a 1-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.