Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record10-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'1"
79"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight184 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1671 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFlavio Baiano Team
What's at stake
Ryan Gandra is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ozzy Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1646
If they lose-13→ 1614
If they win+13→ 1708
If they lose-19→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ozzy DiazRyan Gandra
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Gandra79%
Ozzy Diaz 21%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gandra a 79% favorite over Ozzy Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Ryan Gandra holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1695 to 1627, a 68-point edge.
Ryan Gandra enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Ozzy Diaz finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gandra 80%.
Ozzy Diaz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.