Paddy Pimblett vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-4-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
73"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Next Generation UKTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Paddy Pimblett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1803
If they lose-16→ 1779
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-8→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paddy PimblettTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paddy Pimblett92%
Tony Ferguson 8%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 92% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Paddy Pimblett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1795 to 1659, a 136-point edge.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Paddy Pimblett finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Paddy Pimblett and Tony Ferguson share 3 common opponents: Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler and King Green.
Tony Ferguson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.