Combat Edge Intelligence

Pedro Falcão vs Victor Madrigal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record15-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamMad Dogs MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Pedro FalcãoNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Victor MadrigalNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.90
Sig. strikes / min
2.31
48%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
9.56
48%
Strike defense
51%
2.07
Takedown avg.
0
22%
Takedown accuracy
0%
83%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Pedro FalcãoVictor Madrigal
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (38%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
5 (31%)
Submission
5 (33%)
5 (31%)
Decision
3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Victor Madrigal55%
Pedro Falcão 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Victor Madrigal a 55% favorite over Pedro Falcão in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Pedro Falcão's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1614), separated by just 0 points.

Pedro Falcão enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Pedro Falcão finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Victor Madrigal 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.