Rafa García vs Vinc Pichel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team ElevationTeamFactory X
What's at stake
Rafa García is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Vinc Pichel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1752
If they lose-20→ 1720
If they win+20→ 1670
If they lose-12→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1694 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1685 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafa GarcíaVinc Pichel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García80%
Vinc Pichel 20%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 80% favorite over Vinc Pichel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Rafa García holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1650, a 90-point edge.
Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafa García finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Vinc Pichel 57%.
Vinc Pichel carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.