Rafael do Nascimento vs Sarvarjon Khamidov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record17-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'6"
70"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
Sarvarjon Khamidov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Rafael do Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1677
If they lose-12→ 1645
If they win+12→ 1763
If they lose-20→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael do NascimentoSarvarjon Khamidov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sarvarjon Khamidov76%
Rafael do Nascimento 24%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Sarvarjon Khamidov a 76% favorite over Rafael do Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Sarvarjon Khamidov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1751 to 1657, a 94-point edge.
Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Rafael do Nascimento finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Sarvarjon Khamidov 59%.
Rafael do Nascimento and Sarvarjon Khamidov share 1 common opponent: Justin Wetzell.
Rafael do Nascimento carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.