Rafael dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-18-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
What's at stake
Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1712
If they lose-10→ 1688
If they win+10→ 1753
If they lose-14→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael dos AnjosRenato Moicano
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renato Moicano64%
Rafael dos Anjos 36%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 64% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1698, a 45-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.
Rafael dos Anjos and Renato Moicano share 1 common opponent: Alexander Hernandez.
Renato Moicano carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.