Combat Edge Intelligence

Rafael dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-17-0Record21-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamFirst Fight Center

What's at stake

Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+13→ 1726
If they lose-11→ 1702
Renato MoicanoNow 1743
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.48
Sig. strikes / min
4.17
47%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.57
60%
Strike defense
60%
1.95
Takedown avg.
1.67
36%
Takedown accuracy
42%
55%
Takedown defense
63%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Rafael dos AnjosRenato Moicano
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (16%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
11 (34%)
Submission
11 (52%)
16 (50%)
Decision
8 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Renato Moicano73%
Rafael dos Anjos 27%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 73% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1713, a 30-point edge.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Renato Moicano 62%.

Renato Moicano carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.