Renan Oliveira vs Thiago Moisés
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Moisés71%
Renan Oliveira 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 71% favorite over Renan Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Renan Oliveira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1686), separated by just 1 points.
Renan Oliveira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Renan Oliveira finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
-Reach70"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tropa ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
If they win+12→ 1698
If they lose-12→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Renan OliveiraThiago Moisés