Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Rodrigo Sezinando53%
Theodor Berggren 47%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Sezinando a 53% favorite over Theodor Berggren in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Rodrigo Sezinando holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1570, a 68-point edge.
Theodor Berggren enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rodrigo Sezinando finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Theodor Berggren 100%.
Rodrigo Sezinando and Theodor Berggren share 1 common opponent: Daniil Donchenko.
Theodor Berggren carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record8-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight6'0"
71"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight167 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamRenyi
What's at stake
Rodrigo Sezinando is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Theodor Berggren carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1651
If they lose-19→ 1619
If they win+19→ 1589
If they lose-13→ 1557
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rodrigo SezinandoTheodor Berggren