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UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren

DateOct 31, 2026
DivisionWelterweight
StatusScheduled
VenueMeta APEX
BroadcastPARAMOUNT+
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET)
Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe
Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 11:00 AM
Rodrigo Sezinando8-2-0Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor BerggrenTheodor BerggrenSimba |8-4-0
brRodrigo Sezinando8-2-0Rodrigo Sezinando
Elo1620Solid
3Y trend1593 → 1620
2022-10-09: 15932022-11-11: 15652023-03-30: 15882024-02-08: 16102024-05-09: 16302024-11-15: 16482025-09-13: 1620
br

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
8-2-0Record8-4-0
TBDAge26
TBDHeight6'0"
71"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight167 lbs
WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight
seTheodor BerggrenSimba8-4-0seTheodor Berggren
Elo1587Solid
3Y trend1553 → 1587
2023-12-09: 15532024-02-24: 15762024-06-01: 15992024-09-07: 16172024-11-23: 15892025-03-29: 15632025-10-04: 15872026-02-07: 16012026-06-27: 1587
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rodrigo Sezinando owns a 33-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Rodrigo Sezinando and Theodor Berggren across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Rodrigo SezinandoTheodor Berggren
1550160016502023202420252026

Recent form

Rodrigo SezinandoL W W W W · +56 Elo last 5
LWWWW
Theodor BerggrenL W W L L · -30 Elo last 5
LWWLL

Elo edge

Rodrigo Sezinando1620-28 last move
Theodor Berggren1587-14 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
14%Rodrigo Sezinando86%Theodor Berggren
Model favoriteTheodor Berggren
Elo baseline45% for Theodor Berggren
Matchup adjustment+41 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Theodor BerggrenStake

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Theodor Berggren is 86%, after Elo alone favored Rodrigo Sezinando at 55%.

Current Elo ratings1620 · 1587Rodrigo Sezinando leads by 33 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1512 · 1533Theodor Berggren faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth10 · 12 fightsTheodor Berggren has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.
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Stat advantages

Rodrigo SezinandovsTheodor Berggren

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Rodrigo SezinandoKO/TKO leads 50% of wins
Theodor BerggrenKO/TKO leads 63% of wins

Tale of the tape

Rodrigo SezinandoTheodor Berggren

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available
UFC middleweight average : 3.85
Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available
UFC middleweight average : 48%
Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available
UFC middleweight average : 3.82
Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available
UFC middleweight average : 52%
Not availableTakedown averageNot available
UFC middleweight average : 1.69
Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available
UFC middleweight average : 31%
Not availableTakedown defenseNot available
UFC middleweight average : 58%
Not availableSubmission averageNot available
UFC middleweight average : 0.69
4Wins by knockout5
2Wins by submission3
1Wins by decision0
1Losses by knockout1
0Losses by submission1
1Losses by decision2

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Rodrigo Sezinando enters with a 8-2-0 record and Theodor Berggren enters with a 8-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren quick answers

When is Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren is listed for UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN on Oct 31, 2026 at 8:00 PM EST.

What event is Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren on?

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren is listed on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN.

What are the records for Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?

Rodrigo Sezinando enters with a 8-2-0 record and Theodor Berggren enters with a 8-4-0 record.

What division is Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?

Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren is listed as a Welterweight fight.

Full fight card
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