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Combat Edge Intelligence

Roman Paulus vs Thimna Mhlauli

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-7-0Record5-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-Reach-
139 lbsWeight135 lbs
Spartakus Fight Gym· 1621 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamQuanWessels BJJ & MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Roman PaulusNow 1587
If they win+16→ 1603
If they lose-16→ 1571
Thimna MhlauliNow 1588
If they win+24→ 1612
If they lose-24→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Roman PaulusThimna Mhlauli
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
2 (40%)
3 (27%)
Submission
1 (20%)
7 (64%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Roman Paulus54%
Thimna Mhlauli 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Roman Paulus a 54% favorite over Thimna Mhlauli in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thimna Mhlauli's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1587 vs 1588), separated by just 1 points.

Roman Paulus finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Thimna Mhlauli 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.