Combat Edge Intelligence

Sebastian Polanco vs Shunichi Shimizu

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-3-1Record35-28-10
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Demon TeamTeamPolar Gym Osaka

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Sebastian PolancoNow 1501
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Shunichi ShimizuNow 1496
If they win+12→ 1508
If they lose-12→ 1484

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1520 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.14
TBD
Strike accuracy
33%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
TBD
Strike defense
31%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Sebastian PolancoShunichi Shimizu
150015502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (12%)
0 (0%)
Submission
19 (56%)
2 (67%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Sebastian Polanco66%
Shunichi Shimizu 34%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Sebastian Polanco a 66% favorite over Shunichi Shimizu in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1501 vs 1496), separated by just 5 points.

Sebastian Polanco enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Sebastian Polanco finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Shunichi Shimizu 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.