Shosuke Kinoshita vs Takuya Shibamura
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Takuya Shibamura59%
Shosuke Kinoshita 41%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Takuya Shibamura a 59% favorite over Shosuke Kinoshita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1570 vs 1581), separated by just 11 points.
Shosuke Kinoshita finishes 23% of wins inside the distance, Takuya Shibamura 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
13-7-1Record6-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Reversal Gym Yokohama Ground SlamTeamReversal Gym Shinjuku Me, We· 1605 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1587
If they lose-15→ 1555
If they win+23→ 1604
If they lose-25→ 1556
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Shosuke KinoshitaTakuya Shibamura