Shosuke Kinoshita vs Takuya Shibamura

Nov 18, 2026 · Internet PPV

Combat Edge model forecast40%Shosuke Kinoshita60%Takuya ShibamuraFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 18, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight MMA

StatusScheduled

VenueEBARA WAVE Arena Ota

BroadcastInternet PPV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Wednesday, November 18, 2026 — watch on Internet PPV.

US East (ET): Wed 3:30 AM
US West (PT): Wed 12:30 AM
United Kingdom: Wed 8:30 AM
Central Europe: Wed 9:30 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 7:30 PM
Your time

Shosuke Kinoshita13-7-1Shosuke Kinoshita vs Takuya ShibamuraTakuya ShibamuraShibaev |6-1-0

Shosuke Kinoshita13-7-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

13-7-1Record6-1-0

30Age27

5'9"Height5'11"

-Reach-

145 lbsWeight156 lbs

Featherweight MMAWeight ClassFeatherweight MMA

Takuya ShibamuraShibaev6-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Takuya Shibamura owns a 11-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Shosuke Kinoshita and Takuya Shibamura across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Shosuke KinoshitaTakuya Shibamura

Recent form

Shosuke KinoshitaL W W W W · +28 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Takuya ShibamuraW L W W W · +48 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Shosuke Kinoshita1570-24 last move

Takuya Shibamura1581+15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Shosuke Kinoshita#319 of 457 active Featherweight fighters · 1570 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mayo Komori (rated 1500 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Otabek Rajabov (rated 1500 at the time): -24.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +28 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #318 Alexsandro Cangaty, 1 ahead of #320 Henrique Madureira.

Takuya Shibamura#308 of 463 active Lightweight fighters · 1581 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kenzo Miyake (rated 1500 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ryo Goto (rated 1500 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +48 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #307 Jae Hyun Park, 1 ahead of #309 Jesus Hernandez.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

40%Shosuke Kinoshita60%Takuya Shibamura

Model favoriteTakuya Shibamura

Elo baseline52% for Takuya Shibamura

Matchup adjustment+8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Takuya ShibamuraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Takuya Shibamura leads the full model at 60%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 9 points.

Current Elo ratings1570 · 1581Takuya Shibamura leads by 11 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1498 · 1505Takuya Shibamura faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 8 sampled fights).

Elo record depth21 · 8 fightsShosuke Kinoshita has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Shosuke KinoshitaNow 1570 · #319 Featherweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1587

Loses by decision-15→ 1555

Takuya ShibamuraNow 1581 · #308 Lightweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1604

Loses by decision-25→ 1556

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Shosuke KinoshitavsTakuya Shibamura

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Shosuke Kinoshitadecision leads 77% of wins

Takuya ShibamuraKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Shosuke KinoshitaTakuya Shibamura

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.90

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 56%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

3Wins by knockout4

0Wins by submission0

10Wins by decision2

2Losses by knockout1

3Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision0

Shosuke Kinoshita vs Takuya Shibamura is a scheduled Featherweight MMA fight on ONE SAMURAI 5 : PACIO VS YAMAKITA. Shosuke Kinoshita enters with a 13-7-1 record and Takuya Shibamura enters with a 6-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.