Adrian Bartosiński vs Tymoteusz Łopaczyk

Nov 21, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast85%Adrian Bartosiński15%Tymoteusz ŁopaczykFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEnea Arena

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Adrian BartosińskiBartos |19-1-0Adrian Bartosiński vs Tymoteusz ŁopaczykTymoteusz ŁopaczykHoney Badger |13-3-0

Adrian BartosińskiBartos19-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

19-1-0Record13-3-0

31Age30

5'11"Height5'9"

TBDReach73"

170 lbsWeight171 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Tymoteusz ŁopaczykHoney Badger13-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Adrian Bartosiński owns a 139-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Adrian Bartosiński and Tymoteusz Łopaczyk across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Adrian BartosińskiTymoteusz Łopaczyk

Recent form

Adrian BartosińskiW W W L W · +17 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Tymoteusz ŁopaczykW L W W W · +42 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Adrian Bartosiński1785+5 last move

Tymoteusz Łopaczyk1646+21 last move

Why they are ranked here

Adrian Bartosiński#14 of 362 active Welterweight fighters · 1785 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Andrzej Grzebyk (rated 1680 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mamed Khalidov (rated 1730 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +17 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #13 Magomed Umalatov, 3 ahead of #15 Shamil Musaev.

Tymoteusz Łopaczyk#144 of 362 active Welterweight fighters · 1646 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Andrzej Grzebyk (rated 1655 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Piotr Wawrzyniak (rated 1500 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +42 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #143 Jack Grant, 1 ahead of #145 Eoin Sheridan.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

85%Adrian Bartosiński15%Tymoteusz Łopaczyk

Model favoriteAdrian Bartosiński

Elo baseline69% for Adrian Bartosiński

Matchup adjustment+16 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Adrian BartosińskiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Adrian Bartosiński leads the full model at 85%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 16 points.

Current Elo ratings1785 · 1646Adrian Bartosiński leads by 139 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1620 · 1539Adrian Bartosiński faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth20 · 17 fightsAdrian Bartosiński has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Adrian BartosińskiNow 1785 · #14 Welterweight

Wins by decision+10→ 1795

Loses by decision-22→ 1763

Tymoteusz ŁopaczykNow 1646 · #144 Welterweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1668

Loses by decision-10→ 1636

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Adrian BartosińskivsTymoteusz Łopaczyk

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Adrian BartosińskiKO/TKO leads 63% of wins

Tymoteusz ŁopaczykKO/TKO leads 54% of wins

Common opponents

Andrzej GrzebykAdrian Bartosiński: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 26, 2025Tymoteusz Łopaczyk: win · Submission (Guillotine Choke) · Jun 20, 2026

Madars FleminasAdrian Bartosiński: win · Decision (Split) · Mar 14, 2026Tymoteusz Łopaczyk: loss · Decision (Split) · Sep 20, 2025

Tale of the tape

Adrian BartosińskiTymoteusz Łopaczyk

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.84

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

12Wins by knockout7

2Wins by submission4

4Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision3

Adrian Bartosiński vs Tymoteusz Łopaczyk is a scheduled Welterweight fight on KSW 123 : BARTOSINSKI VS LOPACZYK. Adrian Bartosiński enters with a 19-1-0 record and Tymoteusz Łopaczyk enters with a 13-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.