William Rentz vs Luis Francischinelli

Oct 13, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast54%William Rentz46%Luis FrancischinelliFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 13, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Tuesday, October 13, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Tue 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Tue 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Wed 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Wed 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Wed 10:00 AM
Your time

William RentzIron Will |8-2-0William Rentz vs Luis FrancischinelliLuis Francischinelli6-1-0

William RentzIron Will8-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-2-0Record6-1-0

27Age30

6'0"Height6'6"

-Reach-

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Luis Francischinelli6-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

William Rentz owns a 35-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare William Rentz and Luis Francischinelli across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

William RentzLuis Francischinelli

Recent form

William RentzW W W W W · +63 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Luis FrancischinelliW L W W W · +60 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

William Rentz1650+12 last move

Luis Francischinelli1615+21 last move

Why they are ranked here

William Rentz#137 of 331 active Welterweight fighters · 1650 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Gabriel Morales (rated 1527 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Christopher Alvidrez (rated 1527 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +63 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #136 Tamerlan Dulatov, 1 ahead of #138 Egor Kostyuchenko.

Luis Francischinelli#177 of 331 active Welterweight fighters · 1615 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Emmanueli Adzoh (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jonathan Piersma (rated 1644 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +60 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #176 Gary Balletto, 1 ahead of #178 Ashley Reece.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

54%William Rentz46%Luis Francischinelli

Model favoriteWilliam Rentz

Elo baseline55% for William Rentz

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back William RentzStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

William Rentz leads the full model at 54%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1650 · 1615William Rentz leads by 35 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1475 · 1518Luis Francischinelli faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 7 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 7 fightsWilliam Rentz has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

William RentzNow 1650 · #137 Welterweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1664

Loses by decision-18→ 1632

Luis FrancischinelliNow 1615 · #177 Welterweight

Wins by decision+26→ 1641

Loses by decision-22→ 1593

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

William RentzvsLuis Francischinelli

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

William RentzKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Luis FrancischinelliKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

William RentzLuis Francischinelli

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

8Wins by knockout6

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision0

William Rentz vs Luis Francischinelli is a scheduled Welterweight fight on CONTENDER SERIES 2026 : WEEK 10. William Rentz enters with a 8-2-0 record and Luis Francischinelli enters with a 6-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.