Jesse Bongfeldt vs Rafael Natal

Dec 12, 2010 · ESPN+

DateDec 12, 2010

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueBell Centre

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Sunday, December 12, 2010 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sun 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sun 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Mon 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Mon 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Mon 1:00 PM
Your time

Jesse BongfeldtWater |17-6-1Jesse Bongfeldt vs Rafael NatalRafael NatalSapo |21-9-1

Jesse BongfeldtWater17-6-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

Time00:05:00

17-6-1Record21-9-1

46Age43

6'0"Height6'0"

TBDReach76,0"

185 lbsWeight185 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Rafael NatalSapo21-9-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rafael Natal owns a 51-point Elo edge (good). Rafael Natal shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jesse Bongfeldt and Rafael Natal across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jesse BongfeldtRafael Natal

Recent form

Jesse BongfeldtW W L D W · +10 Elo last 5

WWLDW

Rafael NatalL L L W W · -28 Elo last 5

LLLWW

Elo edge

Jesse Bongfeldt1621+9 last move

Rafael Natal1672-16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jesse BongfeldtNot on the active ladder · 1621 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Sean Pierson (rated 1545 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Chris Weidman (rated 1628 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 1 loss, +10 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1531, not 1621: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Rafael NatalNot on the active ladder · 1672 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Tor Troeng (rated 1664 at the time): +15.
Costliest loss: Lost to Tim Kennedy (rated 1750 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -28 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1582, not 1672: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Jesse BongfeldtNow 1621

Wins by decision+14→ 1635

Loses by decision-10→ 1611

Rafael NatalNow 1672

Wins by decision+10→ 1682

Loses by decision-14→ 1658

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jesse BongfeldtvsRafael Natal

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

1.01vs2.48

Takedown defense

33%vs77%

Submission average

0vs0.50

Takedown average

1.51vs2.55

Finishing profile

Jesse Bongfeldtsubmission leads 59% of wins

Rafael Nataldecision leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jesse BongfeldtRafael Natal

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.91Sig. strikes landed per min3.10

UFC middleweight average : 3.94

62Sig. strike accuracy48

UFC middleweight average : 48%

1.01Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.48

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

50Sig. strike defense58

UFC middleweight average : 52%

1.51Takedown average2.55

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

33Takedown accuracy34

UFC middleweight average : 30%

33Takedown defense77

UFC middleweight average : 59%

0Submission average0.50

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

7Wins by knockout4

10Wins by submission8

0Wins by decision9

2Losses by knockout6

3Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision3

Jesse Bongfeldt vs Rafael Natal is a scheduled Middleweight fight on UFC 124 : ST-PIERRE VS KOSCHECK. Jesse Bongfeldt enters with a 17-6-1 record and Rafael Natal enters with a 21-9-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.