Paddy McCorry vs Gustavo Sousa

DateSep 26, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueRDS Arena

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Sat 12:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 9:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 5:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 6:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 2:00 AM
Your time

Paddy McCorry8-1-0Paddy McCorry vs Gustavo SousaGustavo SousaJones |7-2-0

Paddy McCorry8-1-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

8-1-0Record7-2-0

28Age28

6'3"Height6'2"

-Reach-

185 lbsWeight186 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Gustavo SousaJones7-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Paddy McCorry owns a 58-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Paddy McCorry and Gustavo Sousa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Paddy McCorryGustavo Sousa

Recent form

Paddy McCorryW W W W W · +96 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Gustavo SousaW L W W L · -2 Elo last 5

WLWWL

Elo edge

Paddy McCorry1653+19 last move

Gustavo Sousa1595+26 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

62%Paddy McCorry38%Gustavo Sousa

Model favoritePaddy McCorry

Elo baseline58% for Paddy McCorry

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Paddy McCorryStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Paddy McCorry leads the full model at 62%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 3 points.

Current Elo ratings1653 · 1595Paddy McCorry leads by 58 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1503 · 1498Paddy McCorry faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 9 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Paddy McCorryvsGustavo Sousa

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Paddy McCorryKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Gustavo SousaKO/TKO leads 57% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Paddy McCorryGustavo Sousa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.80

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 32%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 0.65

4Wins by knockout4

2Wins by submission3

2Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision0

Paddy McCorry vs Gustavo Sousa is a scheduled Fight card fight on CAGE WARRIORS 210 : MCCORRY VS SOUSA. Paddy McCorry enters with a 8-1-0 record and Gustavo Sousa enters with a 7-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.