Sergio Pettis vs Joji Goto

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast58%Sergio Pettis42%Joji GotoFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Sergio PettisThe Phenom |25-8-0Sergio Pettis vs Joji GotoJoji Goto20-9-0

Sergio PettisThe Phenom25-8-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

25-8-0Record20-9-0

33Age30

5'6"Height5'8"

69"Reach68"

134 lbsWeight134 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Joji Goto20-9-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Sergio Pettis owns a 125-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Sergio Pettis and Joji Goto across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Sergio PettisJoji Goto

Recent form

Sergio PettisL W W L L · -13 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Joji GotoW L W W W · +41 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Sergio Pettis1759-14 last move

Joji Goto1634+14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Sergio Pettis#7 of 225 active Flyweight fighters · 1759 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Juan Archuleta (rated 1783 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mitchell McKee (rated 1704 at the time): -14.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 26 points behind #6 Asu Almabayev, 2 ahead of #8 Brandon Moreno.

Joji Goto#163 of 379 active Bantamweight fighters · 1634 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Junya Hibino (rated 1526 at the time): +15.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ilyas Eziev (rated 1500 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +41 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #162 Khalid Taha, 1 ahead of #164 Steven Koslow.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

58%Sergio Pettis42%Joji Goto

Model favoriteSergio Pettis

Elo baseline67% for Sergio Pettis

Matchup adjustment-9 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Sergio PettisStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Sergio Pettis leads the full model at 58%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 9 points.

Current Elo ratings1759 · 1634Sergio Pettis leads by 125 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1738 · 1570Sergio Pettis faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth32 · 31 fightsSergio Pettis has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Sergio PettisNow 1759 · #7 Flyweight

Wins by decision+8→ 1767

Loses by decision-16→ 1743

Joji GotoNow 1634 · #163 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1650

Loses by decision-8→ 1626

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Sergio PettisvsJoji Goto

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Sergio Pettisdecision leads 64% of wins

Joji GotoKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Sergio PettisJoji Goto

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.88Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

37Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

2.91Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

65Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

0.85Takedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

37Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

68Takedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0.36Submission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

5Wins by knockout9

4Wins by submission5

16Wins by decision6

1Losses by knockout0

2Losses by submission4

5Losses by decision5

Sergio Pettis vs Joji Goto is a scheduled Fight card fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Sergio Pettis enters with a 25-8-0 record and Joji Goto enters with a 20-9-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.